A pollster and political scientist at the State University of New Jersey says today's gubernatorial race in the Garden State is a tossup that will won by the candidate with the best organization on the ground to get voters to the polls.
Republican Chris Christie leads incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 47-41 in Public Policy Polling's final poll of the New Jersey governor's race, with Independent Chris Daggett at 11 percent.
David Redlawsk is director of the Rutgers University Eagleton poll and a political science professor at the school. He says polls indicate New Jersey voters are uncertain, unhappy with high property taxes, and potentially willing to take a chance on something new. However, he says there is another reason why Republican Christie could win in such a liberal state.
"Voters don't like Jon Corzine very much," he states bluntly. "Some of that's tied to the economy -- it's kind of a bad time to be a governor -- [and] some of it's tied to Corzine's personal characteristics. He's not seen as a particularly warm and fuzzy kind of guy, so his ratings have been as low as any New Jersey governor since that kind of thing has been kept track of."
Redlawsk contends that because President Obama has spent so much time campaigning for Corzine, the contest could be viewed as a referendum on the president.
"The president has clearly tied himself to this election by coming in as he has," the educator points out, "and it wouldn't be unreasonable for anyone to say if Jon Corzine loses, maybe Barack Obama doesn't have the pull everyone thought he did."
Christie leads Corzine 42-40 in the latest Quinnipiac poll, with 12 Daggett garnering 12 percent. Six percent remain undecided.
An unpopular president
In Virginia, political analysts are predicting the Democratic candidate will suffer a resounding defeat in the state's gubernatorial election today.
Noted University of Virginia pollster and political scientist Larry Sabato is predicting that former Virginia Republican Attorney General Bob McDonnell will defeat Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds today in a "landslide." A Richmond Times-Dispatch poll released Sunday showed McDonnell leading Deeds by 12 points. Other polls have yielded similar results.
Dr. Charles Dunn, dean of the Robertson School of Government at Regent University in Virginia Beach, says even if President Obama had spent more time campaigning for Deeds, it would not have mattered. (
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"Barack Obama's popularity is going down," says Dunn, "and you can imagine in Virginia -- which has a strong conservative voting base -- that it has gone down more than in some other parts of the country."
And the president's policy ideas are "very unpopular" in Virginia, he adds. "So on two counts, his own popularity and the popularity of his policy ideas are causing him serious trouble," the Regent educator suggests.
Dunn says Deeds has failed to put together the same coalition that enabled Democrats Barack Obama, Governor Tim Kaine, and Senator Jim Webb to carry the state -- a high turnout of black, independent, Hispanic, and younger voters.
