Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Conservatives Are Making A Comback

Political observers say today's gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia don't bode well for either Democratic candidate -- due in part to President Obama's declining popularity and his policies that don't resonate with the voters.

Chris Christie (NJ Republican)A pollster and political scientist at the State University of New Jersey says today's gubernatorial race in the Garden State is a tossup that will won by the candidate with the best organization on the ground to get voters to the polls.

Republican Chris Christie leads incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 47-41 in Public Policy Polling's final poll of the New Jersey governor's race, with Independent Chris Daggett at 11 percent.

David Redlawsk is director of the Rutgers University Eagleton poll and a political science professor at the school. He says polls indicate New Jersey voters are uncertain, unhappy with high property taxes, and potentially willing to take a chance on something new.  However, he says there is another reason why Republican Christie could win in such a liberal state.

"Voters don't like Jon Corzine very much," he states bluntly. "Some of that's tied to the economy -- it's kind of a bad time to be a governor -- [and] some of it's tied to Corzine's personal characteristics. He's not seen as a particularly warm and fuzzy kind of guy, so his ratings have been as low as any New Jersey governor since that kind of thing has been kept track of."

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-New Jersey)Redlawsk contends that because President Obama has spent so much time campaigning for Corzine, the contest could be viewed as a referendum on the president.

"The president has clearly tied himself to this election by coming in as he has," the educator points out, "and it wouldn't be unreasonable for anyone to say if Jon Corzine loses, maybe Barack Obama doesn't have the pull everyone thought he did."

Christie leads Corzine 42-40 in the latest Quinnipiac poll, with 12 Daggett garnering 12 percent. Six percent remain undecided.

An unpopular president
In Virginia, political analysts are predicting the Democratic candidate will suffer a resounding defeat in the state's gubernatorial election today.

Bob McDonnell (VA)Noted University of Virginia pollster and political scientist Larry Sabato is predicting that former Virginia Republican Attorney General Bob McDonnell will defeat Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds today in a "landslide." A Richmond Times-Dispatch poll released Sunday showed McDonnell leading Deeds by 12 points. Other polls have yielded similar results.

Dr. Charles Dunn, dean of the Robertson School of Government at Regent University in Virginia Beach, says even if President Obama had spent more time campaigning for Deeds, it would not have mattered. (Listen to audio report)

"Barack Obama's popularity is going down," says Dunn, "and you can imagine in Virginia -- which has a strong conservative voting base -- that it has gone down more than in some other parts of the country."

Creigh Deeds (Virginia gov. candidate)And the president's policy ideas are "very unpopular" in Virginia, he adds. "So on two counts, his own popularity and the popularity of his policy ideas are causing him serious trouble," the Regent educator suggests.

Dunn says Deeds has failed to put together the same coalition that enabled Democrats Barack Obama, Governor Tim Kaine, and Senator Jim Webb to carry the state -- a high turnout of black, independent, Hispanic, and younger voters.


  1. Can you believe that within one year the conservatives have made such a comeback from the brink of extinction? People are waking up to the foolishness from the left of BOTH parties. Just look at Dede. She was a liberal republican(RINO) that is indorcing a liberal democrat. That shows you there is no difference between the two. I think people wanted conservative "change" but they got liberal "change" instead. It looks think we will be voting for "change" again. We need another Reagan.

  2. The Obama administration and the media are together going to downplay today’s electoral victories for the GOP.

    They will, to the mainstream media, not be relevant to or any sign of a rebuke against Barack Obama and his far left agenda.

    In fact, the media is already beginning the narrative that we cannot see today as a referendum on Barack Obama.

    Consider these facts:

    New York 23

    Barack Obama sent Joe Biden to visit.
    Obama’s White House negotiated Dede Scozzafava’s endorsement of the Democrat.
    Scozzafava and Owens both supported and campaigned on supporting the stimulus.
    New Jersey

    Obama sent his top pollster to take command of the race.
    Obama visited multiple times, including the day before the election.
    Obama is featured in most of Corzine’s advertising.
    The Democratic Governors Association and DNC all pumped in a ton of money.
    Corzine ran on helping Obama at the state level.

    The Democratic Governors Association spent $4 million to get Creigh Deeds elected.
    The Democratic National Committee spent $6 millino to get Deeds elected.
    Obama campaigned for Deeds multiple times.
    Organizing for America sent a mail piece to 300,000 “surge voters”, or voters who voted for the first time in 2008, urging them to vote for Deeds.
    Organizing for America set up phone banks for Creigh Deeds.
    The state owned media is going to tell us none of this matters and this was no rebuke of Barack Obama.

    Don’t believe it. The facts speak for themselves.

  3. Republicans Ascending? Nope.

    NATIONAL NUMBERS: But...But...The Republicans Are Ascending!!
    Two new sets of data released from surveys conducted over last weekend show that the impending GOP tsunami is apparently news to the voters of America. A new poll conducted by CNN (PDF file) gives the Democrats a six-point (50-44) edge on the generic ballot among registered voters. What's more, in an even more intriguing polling query, CNN asked voters whether they would prefer a candidate for Congress who supported President Obama, or one that opposes President Obama. There, the margin doubled, with voters preferring candidates who backed the President by a 54-41 margin. Meanwhile, we also get new data from Ipsos/McClatchy. This poll gives the Democrats a seven-point edge on the generic ballot test (48-41).




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